Poker variance & bankroll calculator
Poker is a long game. Enter your win rate, variance, sample size, and bankroll to see your expected result, how wide the swings can be, and your risk of going broke before your edge shows up.
Expected result+2,500 bb
95% range-1,883 bb to 6,883 bb
Chance of a losing stretch13%
Risk of ruin13.5%
Chance of losing your whole 2,000 bb bankroll before variance evens out, at this win rate.
Frequently asked questions
- What is risk of ruin in poker?
- Risk of ruin is the probability you lose your entire bankroll before your edge plays out. It falls as your win rate and bankroll rise, and climbs with higher variance. A break-even or losing player has a 100% risk of ruin given enough hands.
- What's a normal standard deviation in poker?
- For no-limit Hold'em cash games, standard deviation is typically around 80–110 bb per 100 hands. Looser, more aggressive games run higher.
- How big should my bankroll be?
- It depends on your win rate and variance — that's exactly what this calculator shows. Many cash players keep 20–40 buy-ins; plug in your numbers to see the risk of ruin at different bankroll sizes.
A rating is the antidote to variance — see your skill grow even on a losing session with your Poker IQ.